By Stephen Rohrer (Wealth Manager) & Tim Russell (President & Wealth Manager) at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 9/29/2025
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September 29, 2025 – Inflation Creeps Higher while Employment Grows
Market Review
The markets spent this past week digesting last week’s Fed rate cuts, and the reaction was mixed. Major indexes ended slightly down:
- S&P 500: –0.25%
- Nasdaq: –0.34%
- Russell 2000: –0.75%
On the commodities side, precious metals and energy jumped higher while Bitcoin slipped:
- Gold: +1.87%
- Silver: +7.04%
- Oil: +4.5%
- Bitcoin: –3.75%
Interestingly, despite finishing the week lower, the Russell 2000 (Small Caps) hit a new all-time high on Tuesday, topping its previous record set nearly a year ago.
Inflation & Employment: Conflicting Signals
Two new economic data points gave investors plenty to chew on:
- Inflation (PCE) – The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in hotter than expected, showing a 2.9% rise year-over-year, matching the recent CPI number. More concerning was that services inflation accelerated even faster at 3.6%, suggesting rising costs are working their way deeper into the economy. Corporations are already confirming that inflation is hitting both production and product costs.
- Jobless Claims – Weekly unemployment claims dropped to 218k, down from 232k last week. The 4-week average has now drifted back toward its long-term trend after peaking at 264k earlier this year. This suggests the labor market is holding up better than feared.
With inflation rising but unemployment steady, the Fed may hesitate to cut rates as aggressively as they had signaled. Their last forecast suggested another 0.5% in cuts by year-end—but these numbers could change that trajectory.
Housing & Mortgage Rates
Lower rates are already filtering into the housing market:
- Mortgage rates declined last week.
- New home sales surged to 800k in August, well above both July’s 664k and expectations of 650k.
Housing strength may further complicate the Fed’s balancing act between supporting growth and fighting inflation.
A Closer Look at the Workforce
One striking trend: workforce participation among prime-age men (25–54) has steadily declined, sitting at 89% today versus about 97.5% in 1960.
- Unmarried men on government assistance make up the largest share of inactive men.
- Married men participate at much higher rates.
- Women’s participation has actually hit a record high of 78%.
This resonates deeply with a biblical perspective. God designed men to:
- Marry (Genesis 2:24)
- Work (Genesis 2:15)
- Provide for their families (1 Timothy 5:8)
When we neglect God’s design for work and family, society—and the economy—feels the consequences (1 Thessalonians 3:10–12). Data even shows that married men dramatically out-earn all other groups, reinforcing God’s wisdom in building strong households.
Market Strategy Perspective
History shows that during non-recessionary rate-cut cycles, markets have performed well:
- S&P 500: +28% average return
- U.S. Bonds: +17% average return
That said, today’s high valuations in growth stocks suggest it may be wise to lean toward value and defensive companies. Dividend-growth stocks, in particular, provide both resilience and long-term compounding potential.
Final Thought
This week’s data reminds us that markets are not just about numbers—they reflect the values and choices of people. When we align with God’s design for work, family, and stewardship, both our households and our economy are stronger.
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Disclaimer: The topics discussed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities and advisory services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, member FINRA/SIPC.
