By Tim Russell, President & Wealth Manager at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 06/30/2025

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

 

 

Market Recap – June 30, 2025

Good morning! This is Tim Russell, and welcome to Life in the Markets with the Life Financial Group. Today marks the last day of June—06/30/2025. Can you believe it? We’ve officially reached the halfway point of the year, and it feels like 2025 just began.

There’s a lot to cover since our last episode, so let’s dive right in.

The U.S. Bombs Iran, a Market Surprise, and a Lesson in Humility

If you remember, in our last episode, Steven and I discussed the rising tensions overseas. The big question at the time was: Will there be war with Iran? Will the U.S. get involved?

Well, just hours after we recorded that episode, the U.S. launched a historic bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.

Now, setting aside the politics for a moment—what would we typically expect from the markets in response to such an event?

You’d probably guess:

  • Oil prices would surge
  • Gas would get more expensive, pushing inflation up
  • Gold would spike as a flight-to-safety asset
  • The stock market would fall
  • Bonds might stay flat or become volatile

And guess what? If you predicted all that—you would’ve been wrong.

What Actually Happened?

  • Oil dropped—by about 12% from recent highs.
  • Gas prices fell, helping offset inflationary pressure.
  • Gold went down—by 3-4%, despite geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Stock market hit all-time highs.
  • Bonds performed surprisingly well.

Pretty wild, right?

Why the unexpected reaction? Here’s my take: The U.S. strikes severely degraded Iran’s ability to retaliate. With little threat of escalation, markets breathed a sigh of relief. On top of that, a ceasefire appears to be holding between Israel, Iran, and the U.S.

Markets love certainty—and this shift brought more stability to the Middle East, a welcome change that the markets responded positively to.

The Limits of Human Prediction

This brings us to a deeper point: We can make educated guesses, but ultimately God is in control. Proverbs reminds us that “The mind of man plans his way, but the Lord directs his steps.”

Here at the Life Financial Group, we did not adjust our investment strategy in anticipation of military action. And we don’t believe you should either. Reacting emotionally or trying to “time the market” rarely ends well.

Whether you lean conservative or aggressive with your portfolio, acting on speculation is usually imprudent. We focus on getting the risk right on the front end, so you can weather storms—expected or not—without having to make drastic changes.

Tax Bill Update: Still in Limbo

Another major topic we’ve covered before is the pending tax bill. Unfortunately, it’s still sitting in the Senate. At this point, it’s unlikely that we’ll meet the goal of having it signed by July 4.

Some lawmakers argue the bill is too expensive—and I understand that concern. But doing nothing is worse. Without new legislation, we’ll revert back to outdated tax codes, which could hurt both the American people and the economy.

Passing this bill would provide much-needed certainty as we enter the second half of the year. Here’s hoping Congress can get it together soon.

Looking Ahead: Market Indicators & Practical Wisdom

So what’s next for the markets?

Frankly, I don’t know—and I won’t pretend to. What I can tell you is:

  • We’re at all-time market highs
  • The P/E ratio recently hit an all-time high, meaning stocks are expensive
  • Markets tend to rise long term, even if the short-term is volatile

If you’ve got a big expense coming up—a vacation, a home project—now’s a good time to take some risk off the table. Talk to your advisor about moving some funds to cash. That’s not fear—that’s wisdom.

Economic Reports This Week

A couple data points to keep an eye on:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) comes out later today
  • Jobless claims will be released Thursday (a day early due to the holiday)

These reports will give us insight into whether businesses are feeling confident about the future or tightening their belts.

Office Closure & Independence Day

Just a reminder: Our office will be closed this Friday for the Independence Day weekend.

If you have any financial needs, please reach out to us before Thursday. We’d love to assist you before we all enjoy some well-deserved time with family, fireworks, and freedom.

A Stewardship Challenge from Proverbs

Let me leave you with a final thought from Proverbs 27:23–24:

“Know well the condition of your flocks, and give attention to your herds, for riches do not last forever; and does a crown endure to all generations?”

This passage offers two key lessons:

1. You are a steward—everything you have is entrusted to you by God. You’re called to know your financial condition:

  • What do you own?
  • What do you owe?
  • How are your investments doing?

2. Wealth is temporary—it can disappear here on earth, but we are called to store up treasure in heaven. That’s the only kind that’s truly safe, incorruptible, and eternal.

So manage what you have well. Invest wisely. But most of all, remember where your real treasure lies.

 

Thank you for joining us on today’s Life in the Markets. Be sure to grab a copy of The Good Steward: Biblical Principles of Wealth Management, take a look, and share it with others—we’d greatly appreciate it.

Thank you so much. Take care, and until next week, God bless.

 

The topics discussed in this blog are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations. Investing and investment strategies involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Securities and advisory services are offered through Genios Wealth Management, member FINRA and SIPC.