By Steve Virkler and Steven Rohrer, Wealth Managers at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 07/14/2025

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A Historic Week: Volatility & Record Highs

Last week was one for the history books.

Monday and Tuesday saw stocks stumble due to headlines about new tariffs and threats of more to come. However, by Thursday, the market brushed off those concerns and reached record highs, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ setting new benchmarks.

Even so, the week ended on a down note Friday, with the S&P 500 closing the week down about 0.3%.

Volatility Remains the Theme

Despite the strong market recovery, volatility continues to be a key theme. We’re also seeing signs of labor market distress. Businesses are hesitant to lay off employees right now, opting for a wait-and-see approach while they monitor the broader economy.

The “Big Beautiful Bill”… What’s Inside?

We’re still reviewing the new federal spending package, referred to by some as the “Big Beautiful Bill.” If you missed Tim’s recap from last week, we highly recommend going back to watch that video for a detailed breakdown.

Tim’s Recap of the Big Beautiful Bill

Here’s a summary of the key takeaways:

The Not-So-Good:

  • Increase in spending
  • Increase in the federal deficit

Frankly, these are things we’re not fans of.

The Good:

Despite the concerns, there are some positive provisions in the bill, especially for families and small businesses.

Pro-Family Policies:

  • Child Tax Credit increased from $2,000 to $2,200 per child under age 17.
  • Introduction of a new Trump Savings Account for children born between 2025–2028.
  • Federal funding for abortion eliminated, including funding for Planned Parenthood.

Incentives to Work:

The bill uses a carrot-and-stick approach to encourage work:

  • Tax breaks for overtime (not all overtime is deductible, but the “time and a half” portion is partly incentivized).
  • Up to $25,000 in tip income is now tax-deductible for certain industries, details to follow as regulations are finalized.

Support for Small Business:

  • 100% deduction on capital expenditures, encouraging business growth.
  • Increase in pass-through business income deductions from 20% to 23%, benefiting LLCs, S-Corps, and limited partnerships.

These measures help support small business owners and entrepreneurs, who are the backbone of the American economy.

The bill also adds new work requirements for able-bodied adults seeking to qualify for Medicaid and food stamps.

This aligns with biblical stewardship principles and Romans 13, where government is tasked with promoting good and punishing evil. In this case, encouraging work aligns with 2 Thessalonians 3:10-12:

“For even when we were with you, we would give you this command: If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat. For we hear that some among you walk in idleness, not busy at work, but busybodies. Now such persons, we command and encourage in the Lord Jesus Christ to do their work quietly and to earn their own living.”

Work is good. God designed it before sin entered the world. We thrive when we work, and we wither when we don’t.

What to Watch This Week

Looking ahead, there’s plenty of uncertainty on the horizon:

Tariffs & Trade:

  • Ongoing tariff tensions with Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and the EU.
  • Canada faces a possible 35% tariff.
  • Some analysts believe President Trump may soften his stance, while others think he’ll double down due to market strength.
  • The August 1 deadline looms for reciprocal tariffs, so keep an eye out for possible new deals.

Federal Reserve Rumblings:

  • Over the weekend, reports surfaced about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell possibly resigning.
  • The administration has been critical of the Fed, and leadership changes could create more market volatility.

Economic Data to Watch:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) report (Tuesday)—Will tariffs be pushing up prices?
  • June Retail Sales (Wednesday)—Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of economic activity.
  • Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday)—Could signal shifts in inflation and employment.
  • June Housing Starts (Friday)—Lower inventory levels could impact the housing market.

Our Advice: Stay the Course

Investors should focus on the big picture and think long term. The past three months have seen one of the fastest market recoveries in history, comparable to the rebounds in 1998 and 2018.

A recent quote from JP Morgan summed it up well:

“Investors who stayed diversified and stayed invested fared the best in the first half of 2025.”

That’s also our philosophy at Life Financial:

  • Stay invested
  • Stay diversified
  • Don’t be reactionary

If you had pulled your money out of the market on April 3, you would have missed out on one of the strongest recoveries in market history.

A Closing Word of Encouragement

Let’s close with Colossians 3:23-24:

“Whatever you do, work heartily, as for the Lord and not for men, knowing that from the Lord you will receive the inheritance as your reward. You are serving the Lord Christ.”

This week, be encouraged. Be strengthened. Get to work. God bless, and have a great week.

 

 

Disclaimer: The topics discussed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities and advisory services offered through Genios Wealth Management, member FINRA/SIPC.