By Tim Russell, President & Wealth Manager at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 06/16/2025

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Market Recap – June 16, 2025

Global Tensions: Israel and Iran

While protests in Los Angeles and other cities initially dominated headlines, the bigger story broke late Thursday into Friday: rising tensions between Israel and Iran. Missiles are flying in both directions, and the markets are understandably spooked.

Let’s tackle the biggest question on everyone’s mind—including many of my clients:

Is this the beginning of World War III?

Honestly, it’s too early to tell, but probably not.

We’re watching Iran develop nuclear warheads while threatening Israel, and Israel is taking preemptive, targeted actions in response. Yes, unfortunately, innocent people will be harmed on both sides. It’s the awful reality of war. I believe—along with God—that war is tragic and hateful. Yet, sometimes, there is a time for war and a time for peace.

Why I Don’t Think This Is World War III

From an economic standpoint, global conditions don’t support a full-scale world war. Many of the potential “backers” of Iran are economically vulnerable right now.

  • China, for example, is struggling to prop up its own economy and is not in a position to engage in a costly war.
  • Russia is already deeply entangled in the Ukraine conflict and likely doesn’t want to open another front.

So, will Iran be on its own? My guess is: probably.

There’s always the temptation to read today’s events through the lens of biblical prophecy—Gog, Magog, and the like—but that’s not my role here. My job is to help you understand what’s happening economically.

So, again, do I think this is World War III?
No.
And if I’m wrong? Even then, everything will be okay. God is still on the throne.

Oil Prices Are the Bigger Story

Perhaps the more immediate concern is the price of oil.

Because of the conflict, oil prices spiked sharply (up to a 19% increase at the peak early Friday) compared to the beginning of the week. Thankfully, the escalation cooled, and we saw prices retreat. Currently, we’re looking at a 7% increase week over week—still significant.

This has real implications for:

  • Inflation
  • Consumer spending
  • Employment
  • Market sentiment

While the Middle East conflict is urgent and concerning, the price of oil will likely have a more immediate and widespread effect on most investors and listeners.

Labor Market: Signs of Softening

We’re also seeing continued softening in the labor market. Weekly jobs reports have come in just a bit softer than the week before. I’m not calling it a breakdown—just a trend to monitor.

Higher unemployment could put pressure on the economy, but markets and businesses will continue. Still, it’s important to watch.

How Did the Markets React?

Despite all this, the market shrugged off last week’s turmoil relatively well. While Friday wasn’t great, the overall weekly decline was modest—about 0.75% to 1%.

That’s not a bloodbath by any stretch.

Early indications this morning are positive, but there’s a lot of week ahead. We’ll see where we are next Monday.

Programming Note

We have a different recording schedule next week, so there won’t be a regular Monday episode. Instead, look out for a midweek update later this week.

Office Update: Annual Staff Retreat

A quick housekeeping note: this week is our annual staff retreat. The office will be closed on Wednesday and Thursday, and phones won’t be staffed.

  • For emergencies, call the main number (610-385-3400)—you’ll be directed to an emergency contact.
  • For everything else, please call Tuesday or Friday if possible.

These retreats are essential for our team’s health and to better serve you—our clients. Thank you for your patience and support!

Thank You for Celebrating Roy

A huge thank you to everyone who came out for Roy’s retirement party last week. He was deeply moved by your support, and we’re grateful too.

Verse of the Week

Let me leave you with this Scripture from Luke 16:10–11:

“One who is faithful in a very little is also faithful in much, and one who is dishonest in a very little is also dishonest in much. If then you have not been faithful in the unrighteous wealth, who will entrust to you the true riches?”

That’s a powerful question to consider as we start the week. God has called us to be faithful stewards. Be generous. Use what He’s given wisely. Trust Him—and He will bless.

 

Thank you for joining us on today’s Life in the Markets. Be sure to grab a copy of The Good Steward: Biblical Principles of Wealth Management, take a look, and share it with others—we’d greatly appreciate it.

Thank you so much. Take care, and until next week, God bless.

 

The topics discussed in this blog are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations. Investing and investment strategies involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Securities and advisory services are offered through Genios Wealth Management, member FINRA and SIPC.