By Tim Russell, CFP®, President & Wealth Manager, and Stephen Rohrer, Wealth Manager at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 10/27/2025

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*Note: you will get the most out of this market update by watching the video above*

 

October 27, 2025 – A Choppy Market

Markets continued to chop around last week, showing strength despite mixed economic signals. The S&P 500 closed just shy of a 1% gain, the Nasdaq rose about 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 advanced roughly 1.75%.

Commodities told a different story. Gold dropped nearly 4%, silver fell about 7%, and oil surged nearly 7%. Bitcoin also climbed, up roughly 4.5%, most of that movement coming over the weekend. Meanwhile, bonds found a bit of relief as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped below 4% for the first time since April’s “tariff tantrum,” before closing slightly above at 4.013%.

The balance between growth and caution remains delicate, especially as the Federal Reserve weighs its next move.

Trade Talks and Global Tensions

On the global stage, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese officials to discuss ongoing trade tensions. His comments suggested that the threat of a 100% tariff increase proved to be an effective negotiation tactic.

China reportedly agreed to buy more U.S. agricultural products, which is good news for American farmers, and is considering delaying rare earth export controls. The two nations also discussed restricting the production of chemicals used to make fentanyl.

These developments are cautiously positive, though much remains uncertain. The market’s reaction was steady, which in this case is a good sign.

Meanwhile, new sanctions on Russia could further disrupt global oil flows, adding to volatility in energy prices. As with most geopolitical issues, the effects will take time to unfold.

A Biblical Perspective on Market Uncertainty

Amid all the speculation, it’s important not to put too much confidence in economic predictions. The media loves to draw straight lines—“because this happened, that will happen”—but real-world markets rarely behave that neatly.

We’re reminded of the biblical perspective in James 4:13–15, where believers are encouraged to say, “If the Lord wills, we will live and do this or that.”

In other words, we should plan wisely, but hold our expectations humbly. Markets can shift quickly, but God remains constant. A patient, measured approach—one that anticipates but doesn’t overreact—is often the wisest course.

Inflation Still Sticky

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation holding at 3% year-over-year. While the headline number looks stable, the details tell a more nuanced story:

  • Food: Prices for meats and nonalcoholic beverages rose over 5%.
  • Medical Care: Up nearly 4%.
  • Energy: Natural gas jumped an eye-catching 12%.
  • Shelter: Up roughly 3.5%, reflecting continued rent pressure.

It might be time to encourage the hunter in your family to fill the freezer this fall. Inflation may not be soaring, but it’s certainly not fading either—and that continues to squeeze household budgets across the country.

The Fed’s Balancing Act

The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate: stable employment and stable prices. In practice, that means tolerating a little inflation while keeping job losses minimal.

With inflation steady around 3%, markets now expect a 0.5% rate cut by year-end, which would bring the federal funds rate down to roughly 3.5%. That means the real return on cash—adjusted for inflation—would hover near zero.

While lower rates can stimulate growth, they also risk reigniting inflation. It’s a delicate balance. The Fed wants to prevent unemployment from rising too quickly, but doing so could keep inflation elevated longer than desired.

Let’s just say, we don’t envy their job right now.

Faith, Finance, and Perspective

As we think about all these moving pieces—markets, inflation, trade, and policy—it’s easy to get anxious about what might happen next. But as Christians, our perspective must be grounded in trust, not fear.

Proverbs 22:7 reminds us:

“The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is slave to the lender.”

Even if interest rates begin to fall, borrowing still carries obligations. It’s wise to keep debt manageable, maintain liquidity, and seek God’s wisdom in every financial decision.

Final Thoughts

Markets are up, inflation is sticky, and the Fed stands at a crossroads. Whether the next few months bring relief or renewed challenges remains to be seen.

In the meantime, we can respond with wisdom, patience, and faith—knowing that no matter how uncertain the economy becomes, God remains in control.

 

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Have questions or topics you’d like us to cover in a future episode? Email us at contact@thelifegroup.org with “Life in the Markets” in the subject line.

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Disclaimer: The topics discussed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities and advisory services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, member FINRA/SIPC.