By Tim Russell (President & Wealth Manager) and Stephen Rohrer (Wealth Manager) at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 3/2/2026
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*Note: you will get the most out of this market update by watching the video above*
Summary for the First Two Months of 2026
Can you believe we’re already one-sixth of the way through 2026? The first two months of the year have been eventful, to say the least. In just the past two weeks, since our last video, here are some of the major headlines:
- The Supreme Court overturns Trump-era tariffs
- Inflation ticks up while employment remains resilient
- War breaks out between Pakistan and Afghanistan
- The U.S. and Israel strike Iran, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
- A suspected terror attack on a bar in Austin, TX
News like this can move markets quickly. As I write this on Sunday afternoon, it’s too early to know how markets will react to the U.S. strike on Iran. Will oil spike? Perhaps. If it does, will it hurt the economy? That depends on how long the spike lasts and how severe it becomes.
Regardless of the market’s short-term reaction, up or down, don’t get overly excited or discouraged. Historically, news-driven market events tend to resolve themselves and return to the primary trend within weeks or months.
Consider the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in April of 2025. Markets sold off sharply, but within a week, after some of the more aggressive rhetoric was softened, markets recovered. Or think back to March 2020, when the world shut down due to COVID-19. We advised clients to stay the course, recognizing it as a largely news-driven shock. Within a couple of months, markets were already well into recovery.
Notice I said typically, not always. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Just because markets have recovered before does not mean they always will. Investing involves risk. That’s why getting your risk level right before markets become volatile is so important. Proper positioning helps prevent emotional overreactions when declines occur.
A Major Shift in Market Leadership in 2026
There’s enough market movement already this year to fill several “Life in the Markets” episodes. But before addressing more geopolitical developments, let’s consider what’s happening beneath the surface of the markets.
For the past several years, growth stocks have driven returns, especially the so-called “Magnificent 7” and, more recently, AI-focused mega-cap companies. These firms have significantly outpaced most other sectors.
So far in 2026, however, that trend has shifted.
- The S&P 500 is roughly flat year-to-date.
- The Equal Weight S&P 500 is up 6.64%.
- The tech-heavy NASDAQ is down 2.21%.
- The Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks) is up 5.57%.
- Many dividend-focused funds and ETFs are up between 6% and 10%.
- International markets, which have struggled for nearly two decades, are up 8.57%.
Smaller companies, dividend strategies, and international exposure are currently leading.
Clients invested in our BRI strategies should be encouraged. These portfolios have held up remarkably well in the current environment. Our decision to avoid many of the largest tech names may have slightly reduced returns in prior years, but this year may mark the beginning of a longer-term shift where the types of companies favored in BRI strategies demonstrate renewed strength.
We will continue watching this carefully.
Supreme Court Overturns Trump Tariffs
Last week, due to a winter storm, we were unable to release our regular market video. However, I did publish a written update for our newsletter subscribers.
If you haven’t read last week’s “Life in the Markets” analysis, I encourage you to visit our website (link in the show notes). And if you’re not yet subscribed to our newsletter, now would be a great time to do so.
We continue to hold the position that broad tariffs are generally poor economic policy. They tend to increase the cost of living and weaken national purchasing power over time. In future episodes, we may explore the economic theory behind that view in greater detail.
That said, the tariffs did appear to accelerate the creation of new trade agreements with several nations. The Supreme Court’s ruling does not undo those agreements.
President Trump is also moving forward with a temporary 10% across-the-board tariff on nations without trade deals, using a different statutory authority. These tariffs are intended to last six months. Meanwhile, lower courts will determine whether companies may be eligible for refunds on previously imposed tariffs—a process that could take years to resolve.
Iran, Regime Change, and the Hope for Virtue
For the second time this year, the United States has conducted military action that resulted in the removal of a foreign leader. This time, the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
It is rare to see an event produce public celebrations in both Israel and parts of Iran. With the removal of Khamenei and much of his leadership structure, Iran’s future now stands at a crossroads.
Our prayer is that the Iranian people would be granted genuine freedom and that future leaders would promote justice and righteousness in that historic nation.
One of the most remarkable developments over the past decade has been the growth of Christianity in Iran. Despite severe persecution, the underground church has expanded significantly. Through personal contacts in the region, we have witnessed increasing hunger for the Gospel and for faithful biblical teaching.
Many Iranian Christians are cautiously hopeful, longing for the ability to worship Christ openly and without fear. We stand with our brothers and sisters in Iran and pray that Christ would be boldly proclaimed throughout their nation.
Verse of the Week: Psalm 2:1–6 (ESV)
1Why do the nations rage
and the peoples plot in vain?
2 The kings of the earth set themselves,
and the rulers take counsel together,
against the Lord and against his Anointed, saying,
3 “Let us burst their bonds apart
and cast away their cords from us.”4 He who sits in the heavens laughs;
the Lord holds them in derision.
5 Then he will speak to them in his wrath,
and terrify them in his fury, saying,
6 “As for me, I have set my King
on Zion, my holy hill.”
No matter how chaotic global events may appear, Psalm 2 reminds us of a foundational truth: God is not surprised, threatened, or dethroned. Nations rise and fall. Markets fluctuate. Leaders come and go. But Christ reigns.
And that perspective changes everything.
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Disclaimer: The topics discussed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities and advisory services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, member FINRA/SIPC.
