By Tim Russell (President & Wealth Manager) at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 3/16/2026
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Market Update for March 16, 2026
Iran: Oil price surge and stock market volatility
After two weeks of conflict with Iran, some things have become more clear while others remain uncertain. We know that the majority of Iran’s leadership has been wiped out. We know that the son of the prior leader of Iran was injured but appears to be alive. It is said that he is in control of the country, though he has not been seen or heard from since the first attack. We know that the Oil markets are significantly unsettled. What we don’t know is how much longer the conflict will continue (Trump has hinted that it may be nearing an end). We don’t know how long the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down or how long the price of oil will be elevated.
What is the most interesting thing for me to observe is how the markets have seen increased volatility but in spite of all the intra day/week price movement, the markets are taking all of this uncertainty in stride. Even with the price of oil near $100 a barrel, which represents a 47% jump since the conflict began, the S&P 500 is only down 3.59% in that same timeframe. That is hardly a sell off. Surprisingly, the equal weighted S&P 500 is still positive (just slightly) year to date. Volatility Index up 33% since start of hostilities with Iran
As we have said before, news driven market events (like this war with Iran) typically resolve themselves before too long. This, of course, assumes that the event does not have broader implications which weaken the economy fundamentally. While I still believe that the long term effects of this conflict will be minor, should oil remain elevated for an extended period of time (several months), the impact of consumers through inflated gas, food, and basic goods prices could be harder to shake.
If there is one thing that we know about President Trump is that he cares about how the markets perform. I believe that it’s highly unlikely that he will engage in a protracted conflict that weakens the economic wellbeing of the nation.
So as we watch this oil price surge and stock market volatility, remember that this too shall pass. We can rest in the fact that God has this under control, and that we can rely on Him to bring peace that surpasses ALL understanding.
Philippians 4:6-7 says, “Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God. 7 And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.”
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Disclaimer: The topics discussed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities and advisory services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, member FINRA/SIPC.
