By Tim Russell, CFP® (President & Wealth Manager) and Steve Virkler (Wealth Manager) at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 11/24/2025

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*Note: you will get the most out of this market update by watching the video above*

Financial markets delivered a choppy week as volatility spiked and major indices pulled back. The VIX index, which measures expected market volatility, surged above 28, up sharply from the 16-17 range just days earlier. While this is a notable jump, it isn’t cause for panic. Earlier this year, during the “tariff tantrum,” the VIX spiked above 60, and historically it touches the 40s or higher almost every year without derailing long-term market performance.

Still, when the VIX enters the 20s, it’s worth paying attention; once it pushes into the 30s and beyond, the market is usually in a full-blown tizzy.

 

Weekly Market Performance

Most major assets finished the week in the red, with risk assets hit the hardest:

  • S&P 500: −1.59%
  • Nasdaq: −2.61%
  • Russell 2000: −0.98%
  • Gold: −0.2%
  • Silver: −0.9%
  • Oil: −2.3%
  • Bitcoin: −8.8% (down roughly 35% from its October high of 126k to 83k)
  • Bonds: +0.37% (10-year Treasury yield now at 4.063%)

The overall tone: investors pulled back from risk while yields eased slightly.

 

Earnings Snapshot: Value Retailers Shine, Discretionary Struggles

Earnings reports painted a split picture of the U.S. consumer:

Winners:

  • Walmart
  • Ross
  • Gap
  • TJX

These value-focused retailers reported strong performance and rising market share as consumers gravitate toward lower-priced options in the face of inflation.

Strugglers:

  • Home Depot
  • Bath & Body Works
  • Williams-Sonoma
  • La-Z-Boy

These companies were hit by tariffs, slowing discretionary spending, and the broader impact of elevated prices on household budgets.

 

Labor Market Update: Unemployment Ticks Higher

We finally received the September unemployment report, which pushed the jobless rate up to 4.4%. While still low by historical standards, it reflects a softening labor market and aligns with broader signs that consumers—especially lower- and middle-income households—are feeling the strain of higher prices.

 

Inflation Insights: Tariffs and Wage Pressures Build

The latest PMI data highlighted a concerning trend:

“Input cost inflation accelerated sharply in November, hitting the fastest rate for three years barring the jump in costs seen in May. Tariffs were again the predominant reason cited… alongside reports of higher wage rates.”

This reinforces what markets have been hinting at: inflationary pressures are not fully behind us, and supply-side factors are re-accelerating.

 

Consumer Sentiment: A Growing Divide

Fresh data from the University of Michigan revealed a stark contrast in how different households are experiencing inflation:

  • Lower-wealth households and those without stock holdings frequently cited high prices as a major drag on their finances.
  • Only one-third of households in the highest wealth tier (top tercile of stockholders) reported the same issue.

In short, inflation is not hitting all Americans equally—the financial burden is significantly heavier for those with fewer assets and less market exposure.

 

Bottom Line

Volatility is elevated, inflation pressures are resurfacing, and consumers are splitting into two very different realities. Markets remain resilient overall, but the cross-currents—from tariffs to household stress—are becoming more difficult to ignore.

 

 

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Have questions or topics you’d like us to cover in a future episode? Email us at contact@thelifegroup.org with “Life in the Markets” in the subject line.

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Disclaimer: The topics discussed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities and advisory services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, member FINRA/SIPC.