By Tim Russell, CFP®, President & Wealth Manager at Life Financial Group
Originally shared on the Life in the Markets podcast — 10/20/2025

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*Note: you will get the most out of this market update by watching the video above*

 

October 20, 2025 – 

Weekly Market Recap

The markets were choppy this week as traders and investors weighed a range of competing factors — renewed trade tensions with China, ongoing employment concerns, and growing skepticism about how quickly AI investments will start to pay off.

Despite the uncertainty, the major U.S. indices managed to post gains. The S&P 500 rose +1.7%, the Nasdaq added +0.78%, and the Russell 2000 climbed +0.65%. Meanwhile, commodities and alternative assets saw some sharp moves: Gold surged +4.9%, Silver gained +3%, Oil slipped -4.3%, and Bitcoin fell -4.9%. In the bond market, Treasuries gained +0.5%, with the 10-Year yield dipping 0.7% to 4.007%.

 

Earnings Season Returns (Already)

It may feel like we just wrapped up the last earnings season, but the Q3 reporting season is already underway. Several major banks kicked things off last week, offering valuable insight into the health of the broader economy.

This data is especially important now, given that the government shutdown continues, limiting access to key economic reports and indicators that investors normally rely on. With less official data available, corporate earnings are taking center stage as one of the best windows into current economic conditions.

 

Banks Paint a Picture of Resilience

So far, commentary from the big banks has been cautiously optimistic. Most executives agree that the U.S. consumer — particularly those at higher income levels — remains a powerful driver of economic stability.

J.P. Morgan noted,

“Consumers and small businesses remain resilient based on our data. While we are closely watching the potentially softening labor market, our credit metrics, including early-stage delinquencies, remain stable and slightly better than expected.”

Citigroup echoed that tone, adding,

“Taking a step back, the macro environment reflects a global economy that’s proved more resilient than many anticipated. The U.S. continues to be a pace setter, driven by consistent consumer spending as well as tech investments in AI and data centers.”

 

A Word of Caution from Jamie Dimon

While optimism dominated much of the conversation, J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon offered his usual blend of insight and realism.

On private credit, Dimon remarked:

“They know what they’re doing, they’ve been around a long time, but they’re not all very smart… We’ve had a bull market for a long time. Asset prices are high. A lot of credit stuff that you would see out there, you will only see if there’s a downturn.”

And on Tricolor, he warned:

“My antenna goes up when things like that happen. And I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see a cockroach, there are probably more — and so everyone should be forewarned on this one.”

Dimon’s comments serve as a reminder that while fundamentals remain strong, investors should stay alert to potential risks lurking beneath the surface of a long-running bull market.

 

The Bottom Line

This week highlighted the push and pull defining today’s markets:

  • Economic resilience led by strong consumer spending,
  • Lingering macro headwinds from trade tensions and labor uncertainty, and
  • Growing questions about whether AI-related investments will deliver near-term returns.

As earnings season ramps up, we’ll gain clearer insight into whether the strength of corporate America — and the U.S. consumer — can continue to carry markets through this period of mixed signals and cautious optimism.

 

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Have questions or topics you’d like us to cover in a future episode? Email us at contact@thelifegroup.org with “Life in the Markets” in the subject line.

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Disclaimer: The topics discussed here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute specific investment advice. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Securities and advisory services offered through Geneos Wealth Management, member FINRA/SIPC.